The construction market by 2030: between recovery and constraints

A housing market recovery is expected but still limited.

After several years of slowdown, residential construction could be returning to a more favorable dynamic. Xerfi points out that the "Housing Recovery" plan , announced as part of the 2026 budget, reflects a more pronounced return of public intervention in the sector. The stated objective of 400,000 homes built per year by 2030 relies in particular on the development of social housing, rental investment, and the simplification of urban planning procedures.

The institute remains cautious, however. In its scenario, production would reach closer to 365,000 homes per year , a level below the government's target, due to an economic context that is expected to remain fragile. For project owners, developers, construction companies, and tradespeople, this outlook suggests a gradual improvement in activity without a true return to the pace observed before the housing crisis.

Commercial real estate evolves according to usage patterns.

On the non-residential building side, Xerfi anticipates a gradual recovery in activity up to 17,6 million m² built in 2030 , while remaining below the volumes recorded before 2022.

Outlook varies across markets. Offices are expected to continue their structural decline due to evolving work patterns. Retail space and some industrial buildings are also projected to remain on a downward trend. In contrast, logistics is expected to maintain positive momentum, supported by the growth of e-commerce and the reorganization of supply chains. Data centers are also among the specific segments expected to continue attracting investment.

Residential renovation continues to face challenges posed by household choices.

The renovation market is expected to continue growing in value between 2026 and 2030, with an estimated increase of 1,5% to 2% per year for major projects. However, this growth does not reflect an increase in the number of construction sites.

Rising quote costs, household budget constraints, and a decline in real estate transactions are expected to limit the volume of work undertaken. Improvements made during a change of ownership are also expected to decrease. Minor repairs will also be affected by the rise of DIY for less technical tasks, reducing opportunities for some small businesses.

Public aid will continue to support energy renovation

Energy-efficient home renovations are expected to maintain a more favorable dynamic than the rest of the renovation market.

Xerfi observes that the difficulties encountered by MaPrimeRénov' , particularly the temporary suspensions of the scheme and the gradual tightening of its eligibility requirements, have slowed down projects in recent years. Since 2026, the subsidies have been more specifically targeted at comprehensive renovations and the most energy-inefficient homes, with stricter oversight of applications.

Energy Savings Certificates (CEE) are expected to play a more significant role. The annual budget allocated to the scheme would increase from €6 billion in 2025 to €8 billion between 2026 and 2030. In addition, the plan dedicated to the electrification of energy uses, announced in April 2026, could strengthen subsidies for high-performance equipment.

For installers, climate engineering companies and tradespeople specializing in energy renovation, these schemes will continue to support demand despite a more selective budgetary context.

The renovation of office buildings is becoming a priority

The office park represents one of the main areas of work by 2030. Xerfi points out that it covers 1,2 billion m² , a large part of which has high energy consumption.

Two factors are expected to accelerate investment. Firstly, the anticipated rise in energy costs, with the end of the ARENH mechanism for electricity and the prospect of increased gas prices. Secondly, the regulatory obligations imposed by the Tertiary Eco-Energy Scheme (DEET) , which mandates a 40% reduction in energy consumption by 2030 for a large portion of the building stock concerned.

This combination of economic and regulatory constraints should favor renovation projects undertaken by owners, property managers, design offices and construction companies.

Margins under scrutiny for construction companies

The study also analyzes the economic prospects of companies in the structural and finishing construction sectors.

The turnover of structural engineering companies is expected to increase from 2026 onwards, driven by the recovery in new construction and the partial pass-through of inflation to quotes. This growth is then expected to slow down with the capping of new construction starts.

Finishing trades companies would benefit from a more regular recovery thanks to maintenance activities, particularly in electrical and climate engineering, which provide a recurring part of their business.

After the decline in material prices observed in 2024 and 2025, Xerfi anticipates a further increase in raw material costs from 2026 onwards. Companies would not be able to pass on these increases in full to their prices, due to competition and customer price sensitivity, which would again weigh on margins.

The scenario presented by Xerfi thus outlines a gradual recovery of the construction market , marked more by an exit from the crisis than by a genuine rebound. For companies in the construction, renovation, and real estate sectors, the outlook will depend as much on the evolution of public policies as on the sector's capacity to absorb new economic, energy, and regulatory constraints.

MaPrimeRénov': between refocusing and more selective access

Launched in 2020 to replace the energy transition tax credit and certain Anah subsidies, MaPrimeRénov' remains the main public support scheme for energy-efficient home renovations. However, its operation has evolved to prioritize comprehensive renovations capable of significantly improving the energy performance of buildings.

Since 2023, the allocation criteria have increasingly placed weight on improving energy performance certificate (EPC) ratings . For homeowners, co-ownerships, and construction companies, this approach implies more structured projects, combining several interventions rather than a series of isolated actions.

The year 2025 marked a turning point in the program's implementation. The dedicated service for major renovations, known as the "assisted pathway ," was suspended from June 23rd to mid-September. During this period, subsidies for individual renovations and for co-owned properties remained available.

The reopening of the route in autumn 2025 was accompanied by stricter regulations. Work limits were revised, the number of applications accepted in the short term was limited, and technical criteria were tightened. These measures were aimed in particular at reducing windfall profits and overbilling practices.

Since 2026, MaPrimeRénov' has therefore operated within a more selective framework . Public authorities are focusing aid more on low-income households, the most energy-intensive dwellings, and projects producing significant energy savings.

For renovation companies, consultants, design offices, and installers, this development requires more rigorous application preparation. Household eligibility, the target performance level, the cost of the work, and the project's technical compliance must be verified beforehand to minimize the risk of rejection or delays.

This refocusing may slow the start of some projects, but it favors comprehensive operations involving multiple trades. Insulation, heating, ventilation, and energy consumption management must then be coordinated within a single energy renovation strategy.